According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy is expected to generate 5.9 million new jobs between 2025 and 2035, resulting in a 3.5% increase in total employment from 170.3 million to 176.2 million.
This is a slower rate of growth than the 10.9% observed during the 2015-2025 decade.
The projections would suggest an average net gain of approximately 49,000 jobs per month if employment growth were distributed evenly over the next decade.
It is anticipated that the growth of employment will exhibit significant variation across major industry sectors during the 2025–2035 decade.
The highest growth rate is anticipated to be 9.8% in the utility sector, primarily due to the increasing demand for electricity, which includes demand associated with artificial intelligence (AI).
Nevertheless, the sector is expected to generate only 58,800 employment opportunities due to its relatively small employment base.
As the population ages and the demand for healthcare services increases, the private healthcare and social assistance sector is anticipated to add over 2.2 million jobs, which accounts for approximately 37% of the total projected employment gain.
Demand for AI-related systems, research and development, and consulting services is anticipated to contribute to an 8.6% increase in professional, scientific, and technical services, which will result in the creation of 926,700 jobs.
Conversely, it is anticipated that employment in the federal government and retail trade will decrease.
Construction is expected to expand at a faster pace than the overall U.S. labor market in contrast to this broader employment outlook.
This analysis investigates the employment of construction workers, with a specific emphasis on specialty trade contractors and residential building construction, in order to determine the occupations that are anticipated to experience employment declines, the fastest growth, or the addition of the most jobs.
1. Employment Prospects in the Construction Sector
It is anticipated that the number of jobs in the U.S. construction industry will increase by 410,700, or 5.0%, from approximately 8.27 million in 2025 to 8.68 million in 2035.
This growth surpasses the anticipated 3.5% increase in total U.S. employment, indicating that construction will expand at a faster pace than the overall labor market in the coming decade.
Residential construction is particularly pertinent to two segments of the construction industry:
The construction of residential buildings is anticipated to generate 34,200 new jobs, which corresponds to a 3.7% increase in employment.
It is anticipated that specialty trade contractors will generate 270,600 new employment opportunities, which corresponds to a 5.2% increase.
Combined, these two segments are responsible for approximately 74% of the projected net employment gain in the construction industry.
The majority of the increase is anticipated to be contributed by specialty trade contractors, who play a significant role in electrical work, plumbing, heating and air conditioning, roofing, and other specialized construction activities.
Nevertheless, specialty trade contractors are capable of managing both residential and nonresidential initiatives.
Consequently, their anticipated employment growth accounts for the demand in the entire construction industry, rather than just residential construction.
While maintaining this critical distinction, the examination of both segments offers complementary perspectives on employment trends that are pertinent to residential construction.
2. Projections for the Growth of Occupational Employment
Occupational projections offer a more detailed understanding of potential job gains and changes in the composition of the construction workforce, whereas industry-level projections indicate the overall pace of employment growth.
Construction of Residential Buildings: Jobs with the Most Anticipated Growth
The projected employment gains in the residential building construction sector are primarily concentrated in occupations that provide support for on-site construction, project coordination, and supervision.
The most significant increase in employment is anticipated to be among construction laborers, who are expected to add 13,900 jobs from 2025 to 2035.
Carpenters will follow with a 8,100 job increase.
First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction laborers are anticipated to gain 2,800 jobs, while construction managers are anticipated to add 5,100 jobs.
With an anticipated increase of 1,700 jobs, project management specialists complete these top-tier occupations.
These projections underscore the ongoing significance of hands-on construction occupations, as well as management and supervisory positions.
The anticipated advantages encompass a variety of phases of residential construction, including project supervision and coordination, as well as on-site labor and carpentry.
Strong Demand for Specialty Trade Contractors in Major Trades
Several occupations within specialty trade contractors are expected to experience significantly greater employment gains.
The most significant increase is anticipated to be among electricians, who are projected to add 65,700 positions between 2025 and 2035.
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are anticipated to experience a 40,900 employment increase, while construction laborers are expected to experience a 34,800 job increase.
The employment of plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters is expected to increase by 27,900.
It is anticipated that supervisory and management positions will also contribute to employment growth.
The projected increase in employment for construction managers is 11,200, while first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are expected to gain 17,300 jobs.
The significance of specialized trades in the broader construction workforce is underscored by these projections.
These gains are indicative of employment trends in the broader construction market, as specialty trade contractors are responsible for both residential and nonresidential projects.
Collectively, the two industry groups demonstrate that the expansion of the workforce will encompass a broader range of occupations than just general construction labor, such as project management, supervision, and skilled trades.
Jobs with the Fastest and Slowest Projected Growth Rates
The number of additional jobs emphasizes the areas in which employment gains will be concentrated, whereas percentage changes offer a complementary perspective by illustrating which occupations are anticipated to expand or contract at the fastest rate in relation to their current employment levels.
Solar photovoltaic installers are anticipated to experience a 35.5% increase in growth within specialty trade contractors from 2025 to 2035.
This is followed by occupational health and safety specialists (+22.4%) and technicians (+19.7%).
Although the increase represents fewer than 100 jobs, the number of data scientists is expected to increase by 30.0% in the residential building construction industry.
These examples demonstrate the potential for rapid percentage growth to result in a relatively small number of additional positions.
In contrast, it is anticipated that a number of administrative positions will experience a decline.
In the construction of residential buildings, it is anticipated that the number of office clerks, secretaries, administrative assistants, and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks will decrease by 6.4%.
Office clerks are anticipated to experience a 9,200-job decline (5.2%) among specialty trade contractors, while bookkeeping and accounting clerks and secretaries and administrative assistants are also anticipated to experience a decline.
The projected decline of 13.5% is for certain craft vocations, such as helpers of brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters.
In general, the projections indicate a significant degree of variation among occupations, with some experiencing rapid growth while others are experiencing a decline in employment.
In conclusion
The net job gain in the construction industry is expected to exceed that of the total U.S. employment from 2025 to 2035, with specialty trade contractors being responsible for a significant portion of this growth.
Among specialty trade contractors, electricians, HVAC mechanics and installers, construction laborers, and plumbers are anticipated to add the most employment, while construction laborers and carpenters are anticipated to lead gains in residential building construction.
The rapid projected growth of solar photovoltaic installers is noteworthy, while several administrative and selected craft occupations are anticipated to experience a decline.
These trends collectively underscore the diverse personnel requirements that the construction industry will encounter in the coming decade.
Please be advised:
Total employment encompasses both wage and salary employment and self-employment.
Employment in the residential building construction industry is directly captured by data, whereas specialty trade contractor data encompasses workers who serve both residential and nonresidential projects.
Because the data available does not differentiate between these activities, the employment of specialty trade contractors in this article offers a more comprehensive perspective on the construction trade demand than a residential-only measure.
[Read more about this topic on eyeonhousing.org]